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Math · Introductory statistics · Worked example

Fit an exponential model to growth data

A culture has 100, 205, 390, 810 and 1600 cells per microliter at t = 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 hours. Fit an exponential model and find the doubling time.

See the curve

The counts roughly double each hour: the ratios are 2.05, 1.90, 2.08 and 1.98. A nearly constant ratio per step means exponential growth, so a straight line would leave curved residuals.

205100=2.05390205≈1.90810390≈2.081600810≈1.98

Fit the model

Least squares on the original scale gives y ≈ 100.494e^(0.692204t), with R² ≈ 0.99985. A straight-line fit to ln y gives a growth rate of 0.692 per hour as well, to three decimal places.

y≈100.494e0.692204⁢t

Find the doubling time

The count doubles when e^(0.692204t) = 2, so t = ln 2 ÷ 0.692204.

ln20.692204≈1.00

Result

y ≈ 100.5e^(0.692t) cells per microliter, doubling about every 1.00 hour.

Your turn

A model y = 50e^(0.35t) describes a population. How long does it take to double?

Show the answer and explanation

About 1.98 time units.

Solve e^(0.35t) = 2: t = ln 2 ÷ 0.35 ≈ 1.98.

ln20.35≈1.98

Keep exploring

In Statistics, switch the fit model to Linear: R² drops to about 0.871, and the residuals curve, positive at both ends and negative in the middle.

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